The two-night debating extravaganza featuring 20 Democratic presidential hopefuls confirmed my existing contention that there are far too many people running for president. It seems that, with Trump in the Oval Office, people think that the old line ‘anyone can be president’ has been finally proved true, and now literally anyone (and everyone) thinks they can be President. But while Trump may have been unqualified for the Presidency when he took office, he was certainly not just anyone. You may think he’s ridiculous, but he has a unique ability to rile a crowd. He may be grotesque, he may be moronic, but he is not ordinary. He is spectacular, even if in a grotesque and moronic way. So if you’re just some boring guy who is both devoid of substance and incapable of spectacle (cough cough Hickenlooper, Bennett and Swalwell) I’m afraid you really can’t be president. The debates definitely could have been improved by the absence of a fair few candidates. The aforementioned three definitely could have helped by not being there, as could Tim Ryan, and Marianne Williamson – who may not be boring but would be the last thing America needs: another insane president.
However, the debates were at times very entertaining. On the first night, Beto O’Rourke, a white Irish-American, drifted aimlessly between English and Spanish as Cory Booker looked on puzzled. On the second night, Swalwell, something of an irritating infant who wants to play with the big kids, tried again and again to pass off attempted witty catchphrases and jibes at other candidates, but they all fell flat. ‘My first act in foreign policy, we’re breaking up with Russia and making up with NATO’ Swalwell proudly announced with a puppyish grin that anticipated applause. Other than a couple of sympathetic chuckles, the kind you might afford a young child who has attempted an original knock-knock joke, the audience responded with silence.
Other statements made on the debate stage were met with hearty cheers, the heartiest of which were prompted by Kamala Harris. Her first ‘breakout moment’ was when she calmly but steadfastly interjected amid a cacophony of mindless squabbling: ‘America does not want to witness a food fight; they want to know how we’re going to put food on the table.’ The applause was probably the biggest of both nights. She received another rapturous response only moments later after she proceeded to lambast the notion of looking at the stock market to determine the health of the economy.
The debates were extremely useful in clarifying those who are plainly weak candidates. Beto O’Rourke, in my view, came across as both charmless and spineless, easily taken apart on immigration policy by a cool and centred Julian Castro. His Spanish interludes came across more as pandering than anything else (I know he’s from El Paso, but it just doesn’t work), and although he had some good things to say about climate change, his shakiness on virtually all policy matters suggests that he’s not the one to tackle the climate crisis. Amy Klobuchar is another candidate for whom the debate confirmed that she simply doesn’t have much to offer – at least anything that distinguishes her.
Overall, I would say that Elizabeth Warren’s frontrunner status was not undermined by her performance on the first night, while Biden’s was on the second night, not only by his own slightly lacklustre ramblings, but also by being both outshined and cleverly put down by Harris. Kamala Harris definitely won the second debate, and although I thought Julian Castro won the first one after watching it, Kamala really won both of them in hindsight because no one performed as well on the first night as she did on the second. In my first update, I predicted that Biden would be the nominee, arguing that although everyone is always asking who the Obama or Trump of ’20 will be, the early frontrunner often does in fact go on to win the nomination, citing Kerry in ’04, Romney in ’12 and Clinton in ’16. However, the events since then, not least the debates over the last couple of nights, have led me to think that this will be one of those years in which the early frontrunner does not win. Watching Biden flounder at Harris’s expense, I’m not sure I can see him making it all the way anymore. If Kamala Harris goes on doing what she did last night on the debate stage, I believe she will end up the nominee. She does have a record that can be attacked by progressives; her policies have increased incarceration rates in California. However, I don’t see anyone else capable of undermining her credibility as deftly as she undermined Joe Biden’s credibility last night. It is still Joe Biden’s to lose, I just now feel that he is more likely to lose it, and Kamala could well be the one to take it from him.