There is a certain escapism in following the Democratic Primary campaign closely at this stage. It is a welcome distraction from both the Trump Presidency and the odd mangling of inanity and dramatic self-sabotage that is our own current politics. Ridiculous as it is that elections in the United States last around two years, I for one love it, and I’m having heaps of fun following the early stages of the primary campaign at the moment. This is of course in spite of the fact that it is a relatively pointless exercise to pay as obsessive attention to the primaries as I am at this stage - we are 263 days from the Iowa Caucus and over a month from the first debate.
So, on that note here begins our first update of the election cycle. I intend to provide a potted guide to all the candidates – strong ones, weak ones, those unheard of, those with not a single ounce of hope etc. I’ll provide a bit of info on each candidate (more on some than on others – I’ll declare right away that very little is said of Seth Moulton, so if you came here solely to learn of him I gently advise that your time would be better spent looking elsewhere) and at times will throw in my take on them, their prospects and how their campaigns have been run so far.
First, let’s get the Republican situation out of the way. Anyone who follows US politics knows that it is uncommon for incumbent presidents to face a viable challenge in the Primary season. Someone has challenged Trump, but it is too early to say whether this is a viable challenge or not. This person is Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts. If you have heard of him – and you would certainly be forgiven if you have not – it is probably because he ran as Libertarian Gary Johnson’s running mate in 2016. Anyway, we’ll see how this pans out. It is exceedingly unlikely that Trump will be defeated by any challenger in the primaries, but it is still an interesting race to keep an eye on. This is because, in recent history, on the less common occasions when the incumbent has faced a major challenger, this incumbent has gone on to lose in the general. The last time this happened was when Pat Buchannan challenged George H. W. Bush back in 1996. So those people hoping to see Trump lose to a Democrat in 2020 (of whom, I don’t mind telling you, I am one) have an interest in Trump facing significant primary opponent.
Now for the fun of the Democratic race. No shortage of candidates here. You don’t seem to be able to swing a dead cat without hitting a Democratic candidate for president. All sorts of people whose names no one had ever heard have been diving eagerly in to this ever more crowded pool, with some making greater splashes than others.
I’ve decided to go in alphabetical order, as opposed to in order of notoriety or strength in the polls, so let us begin (briefly) with Colorado Senator Michael Bennett. What? you haven’t heard of Senator Michael Bennett?! Where have you been? Really, what is he doing running for President? He’s not even the most major candidate from Colorado – there’s Hickenlooper, and by the way, he’s by no means major at all. I really don’t think Bennett has the remotest of chances.
Next is a somewhat bigger name: Biden. Joe Biden’s highly anticipated run began on April 25, with what I thought was a fairly well-put-together video in which he essentially focused on America’s soul. Although there are a good many who yearn for policy detail first and foremost, talking about something like America’s soul can be – and apparently was – quite effective; the first few days of Joe Biden’s campaign went just about as well as he could have hoped. Biden’s already existing leads in the polls grew after his announcement, and at the moment he polls at over 40% in South Carolina – perhaps the most significant early primary state for the Democrats. Media speculation on this campaign is rather mixed, with some seeming to think that Biden’s strong numbers mean it will be difficult for anyone to beat him, and others viewing him as more of a ‘temporary frontrunner’, who will begin losing support to other candidates once the debates have started.
Cory Booker hasn’t been doing particularly well. He kicked off his campaign with what I thought was a rather contrived video, and he doesn’t seem to have gained much momentum since. He’s polling around 5% in South Carolina, a state he would really need to do well in to continue his campaign, and I can’t say I really see that number increasing much. One area Booker has done well in is endorsements – Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ranks him second in their ‘endorsement primary’, however endorsements from major politicians (unless they are really major) are not always that consequential, and certainly do not seem to have been in the case of Booker.
Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana, may be of the unheard-of candidates one of the ones to watch. He’s a fairly impressive talker, a moderate, and very popular in his home state. It’s still a long shot, and I’m not sure how he would convince people to pick him over, say, Klobouchar.
Pete Buttigieg’s campaign has impressed a lot of people. He’s had a lot of attention and airtime on major news networks, and would often come third in national polls for a good few weeks. The mania that once surrounded his campaign appears to have slightly fizzled out, but I would not be surprised to see him to have another bounce once the debates start. He’s a very effective communicator and has a way of phrasing things that makes him seem very reasonable and also very intelligent – making him seem for many something of an antithesis to Trump. He would be the youngest President in history, and also the first openly gay one. Ultimately, I don’t see him appealing to a broad enough coalition of voters to make it beyond the South Carolina primary.
We now have Julian Castro – fairly major as a politician in the sense that he had a cabinet position under President Obama and was a talked about contender for Hillary Clinton’s VP pick, but wouldn’t be considered one of the major candidates at this stage, rarely polling nationally at more than 1%.
Next is John Delaney. He announced his campaign ages ago in the hope that it would give him more time to make a name for himself and build popularity, but that doesn’t appear to have worked out. He is definitely one of the moderates and has criticised progressive proposals such as free healthcare and the Green New Deal. There certainly is some appetite for centrists in the party (even if the Progressive wing may seem far more vocal at the moment), but why would you necessarily pick this one? If he’s going to do well he is going to have to differentiate himself a bit more from the other moderates.
The next two candidates are Tulsi Gabbard and Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand is the bigger name; she is a senator while Gabbard is a representative. Gillibrand’s campaign was also the more anticipated, but neither have gained substantial attention so far. Gabbard is widely seen as a progressive figure, having endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016, while Gillibrand has a reputation of being more moderate, though she is championing some progressive causes in this campaign such as the Green New Deal. Either of these candidates probably have the potential to gain a bit of traction as the campaign progresses, but they certainly could also get nowhere. Personally, I think Gillibrand lacks charisma, while Gabbard seems to me more impressive, but in such a crowded field with plenty of other staunch progressives I don’t really see her continuing beyond the early states.
Mike Gravel deserves a mention just because his campaign is rather amusing. The 89-year-old’s campaign is being run by a bunch of teenagers, and Gravel has made it clear he doesn’t want to be president, but merely wishes to get some left-wing causes and direct democracy on the agenda. He also ran back in 2008, during which time he released a bizarre video ad in which he gazed at the camera for a minute or so and then inexplicably throwing a rock into some water.
Next is Kamala Harris. This is a big name. The California Senator was one of the favourites at the time she announced, but seems to have struggled to really rise in the polls. At best, she comes a distant third. Still, she is a strong candidate – popular in the party, a good talker, likeable and with some hardline positions on gun control. She could definitely perform well in the debates, and several notable figures have predicted that she will win the nomination, including conservative commentator Ann Coulter and Republican former house speaker, Newt Gingrich.
Then we have who I referred to earlier as the more major of the two candidates from Colorado: John Hickenlooper. He was governor of that state for eight years, and beyond that there is little to say. As many have pointed out, he should really be running for senate in Colorado and not for President of the United States.
Jay Inslee is an interesting candidate because he is running a single-issue campaign on climate change. The Washington governor has in-depth policies to convert to decarbonise and create green jobs. Climate change at least should be a very big issue this primary race. Apart from the fact that it is, well, an existential threat, it is also often ranked as the political issue Democratic primary voters most care about. This doesn’t mean that Jay Inslee should do particularly well, but hopefully his presence in the debate will be a continuing reminder of the importance of this issue, and other candidates will be compelled to adopt more aggressive approaches.
Amy Klobouchar polls around 1% at the moment, but she is another candidate who could perform well in the debates. She impressed many with her questioning of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, and seems a smart, pragmatic, straight-talking politician. There is also much value in her being a Midwesterner, as the Democrats simply have to win back states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Many believe that Klobouchar, who is from Minnesota, could do well in these states. This is the kind of candidate who could do well if Biden’s campaign goes wrong, given that she occupies a similar aisle in the primary. Moreover, if Biden does not end up doing well, and he is indeed a ‘temporary frontrunner, many of his votes could go to Klobouchar. However, bear in mind that Biden is fairly popular with many areas of the party, and without him, I imagine, his support would splinter into votes for lots of other candidates.
As promised, Seth Moulton gets a very meagre write up. In fact, this is it. Maybe I will just add that he’s no fan of universal healthcare. From the centrist wing of the party.
Beto O’Rourke wowed people across the nation with his superb senate campaign against Ted Cruz in 2018, and he almost unseated Cruz in this supposedly safe Republican state. One thing to bear in mind is that his opponent was Ted Cruz, and Ted Cruz is simply loathsome. There was much speculation over whether Beto would throw his hat in to the ring, and when he finally did it was with a rather uncomfortable video in which he talked at the camera while his wife sat silently beside him. It’s hard to determine where Beto stands on the progressive to moderate spectrum – on issues like climate change and immigration he’s pretty progressive, but he’s also voted with Trump 30% of the time in congress. He’s polling between 2 and 5%, and his gloss was slightly lost in the emergence of Buttigieg.
Tim Ryan. He’s a representative from Ohio and guess what? He’s running for president. Next…
Bernie Sanders. This veteran democratic socialist was close runner-up last time. You probably know enough about him, so I’ll just say that he may be in hindsight the strongest candidate from 2016, but that does not mean he is the strongest this time round. He started a movement, but that movement now has new faces and does not necessarily need him anymore. He’s in second place in most polls, but well behind Biden, and when Biden announced, Sanders’ numbers actually went down by around the same number Biden’s went up. I don’t think Bernie is going to win this, and if anything, I expect him to drop further. But this is definitely another one that will depend largely on what happens in the debates. I just have a feeling that this isn’t Sanders’ time.
It’s funny how doing them alphabetically means you get a big one, then a small one, then a big one, then a small one. We now have Eric Swallwell. Seems to me like a decent guy, but I’m afraid to say he’s got little hope.
Elizabeth Warren’s numbers have been improving somewhat recently, with some third -place rankings in recent polls, and I can see her displacing Bernie Sanders. While being popular with the progressive base, Warren is something of a party loyalist and has strong ties to Democrats across the party. Some question whether she can beat Trump, but I would suggest that she is one of only a few of the many Democrats running who could win the nomination. She has both big ideas and policy detail, making her a candidate of real substance. Most of the others just have one or the other, or neither.
Finally, Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur who is popular on the net and is the only candidate vocally endorsing UBI (universal basic income). He’s definitely a policy man, and has already qualified for a place in the debates. Someone to watch, definitely, but very unlikely to go all away.
I will end by offering my own vague prediction at this very early stage. I actually do see Biden winning it right now. People talk a lot about how the frontrunner at this stage by no means remains at the top, but I would point out that they often do. While Hillary Clinton, the early favourite in 2008, ultimately lost to Obama, she was similarly the favourite in 2016, and won that. Gore was the early favourite in 2000, as was Kerry in 2004. Vice presidents also tend to win the nomination. And I do really think that Biden’s campaign has gone swimmingly so far, and it is not as if he is only just ahead in the polls – he commands a very hearty 20-point lead over second place. This is not to say that I necessarily think he would be the right candidate, just to be clear. If you look at past elections, choosing the moderate, bipartisan, experienced older candidate doesn’t seem to work against an incumbent president: Bob Dole lost to Clinton in ’96, Kerry to Bush in ’04 and Romney to Obama in ’12. Anyway, let’s see what happens – lots to look forward to.