This is a unique election. The representatives elected may never even take up their seats. The government had promised that these elections would not take place, and yet on 23 May the UK will go to the polls again. With talks having broken down to form a “Remain alliance”, there are seven major parties competing in England.
Labour
Socialists and DemocratsLabour say they are the only party trying to appeal to both Leave and Remain voters but run the risk of appealing to neither. Shadow cabinet divisions have left many voters unsure on the crucial issue of whether the Labour Party supports a second referendum. Barry Gardiner said the party were trying to bail out the government, whilst Tom Watson has said the party will demand a second vote on any deal. The party had to reprint their campaign leaflets after they didn’t mention another referendum. Their policy was eventually summarised as “Labour will continue to oppose the Government’s bad deal or a disastrous no deal. And if we can’t get agreement along the lines of our alternative plan or a general election Labour backs the option of a public vote.”
Conservative
European Conservatives and ReformistsThe Conservative policy is to deliver the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal. Whilst factions inside the party support alternative plans, mostly no deal, every vote for the Tories undoubtedly strengthens the Prime Minister. Indeed, a poor showing may even be enough to convince Tory backbenchers to oust her immediately.
UKIP
Europe of Freedom and Direct DemocracyUKIP supports leaving the EU without a deal. They have been embroiled in controversy in the run up to this election. One of their candidates, Carl Benjamin, has refused to apologise for saying in 2016 that he “wouldn’t even rape” Labour MP Jess Phillips. Leader Gerard Batten has rejected calls from within the party for him to be deselected.
Brexit Party
Europe of Freedom and Direct DemocracyA new political party fighting its first elections, advocating a no deal Brexit. Nigel Farage is at the centre of the party, disavowing UKIP, which he used to lead, as “vile”. The original party leader, Catherine Blaiklock had to resign after racist comments she made before joining the party came to light.
Change UK
European People's PartyThe party, started when 11 MPs broke away from the Labour and Conservative Parties earlier this year, is also contesting its first election. The party strongly supports a second referendum and have consistently voted against or abstained on any other proposed Brexit compromise in the House of Commons. They have also had some controversial candidates. Two MEP candidates had to withdraw after offensive social media posts emerged.
Liberal Democrats
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for EuropeThe Liberal Democrats are putting themselves forward as the party of Remain, proposing another referendum. They launched their campaign on the slogan “Bollocks to Brexit”. This could be Vince Cable’s final election as leader, as he has promised to step down in the summer. A good result will help their resurgence continue after their disastrous 2015 election results.
Green
Greens–European Free AllianceThe Green party are also supporting a second referendum. They have committed to protecting freedom of movement and say that Brexit puts environmental protection laws at risk.
The election uses a regional list system. This means, unlike in Westminster elections, you vote for a party not a candidate. Each party puts forward a list of candidates and the seats are then allocated using the D’Hondt method. The first seat in the region is given to the party with the most votes. Their vote is then halved. The next seat is given to the party with most votes after the halving. After a party has been given n seats, the number of votes they are counted as having is their original total divided by n+1.
The D’Hondt system is a much more proportional method than the first past the post system used in Westminster elections. It favours the larger parties, when compared to other proportional systems (see table).
In the last European elections, in 2014, UKIP won the most seats and the highest vote share. Labour came second with the Conservatives third. Since then UKIP have lost 21 of their 24 MEPs through defections largely to the Brexit Party.
2014 Results
| Party | Votes | Seats | Votes per Seat |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK Independence Party | 4376635 | 24 | 182360 |
| Labour Party | 4020646 | 20 | 201032 |
| Conservative Party | 3792549 | 19 | 199608 |
| Green Party of England and Wales | 1136670 | 3 | 378890 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1087633 | 1 | 1087633 |
At the moment, the Brexit Party are leading, with Labour second. The Conservatives are currently polling third narrowly ahead of the Liberal Democrats but may face coming fourth in a nationwide election for the first time in their history. Following the local elections, where they didn’t stand, Change UK have slipped back relative to the Liberal Democrats.
This election is about Brexit. It could be the final chance for voters to express their opinion before the UK leaves. It is likely that the Brexit Party will do well, emboldening Conservative Brexiteers to possibly topple the Prime Minister. A strong performance for Remain parties will strengthen campaigners for a second referendum. The voting system means they will probably suffer however in number of seats, as the vote will split between the three parties. The problem with creating a direct Remain-Leave comparison, however, is that the Labour Party position is somewhat ambiguous, with both Leavers and Remainers claiming that Labour votes support their side, and indeed Labour inviting votes from both sides. Most likely, no party will perform well enough to claim the decisive victory necessary to influence this government, which is determined to ignore these elections.